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تحميل كتاب الاستشراف و الابتكار و الإستراتيجية PDF

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عنوان الكتاب: الاستشراف والابتكار والإستراتيجية PDF

تأليف: سينثيا ج. واغنر

ترجمة: د. صباح صدّيق الدملوجي

الناشر: مركز دراسات الوحدة العربية و بدعم من مؤسسة محمد بن راشد آل مكتوم

الاستشراف و الابتكار و الإستراتيجية

لم يعد التنبؤ بالمستقبليات مقصورا على المفكرين و الفلاسفة فقط اكتسب اليوم صيغةً علميةً من خلال اللجوء إلى الطرق الحديثة في جمع المعلومات و تحليلها، واستخدام أساليب رياضية و إحصائية لاستقراء التطورات المحتملة.
و إذا كانت البحوث المستقبلية قد انطلقت من قراءة الواقع الصناعي و الزراعي و البيئي فكان للاستشراف المستقبلي نجاح لابأس به، فإن استبصار ما سيؤول إليه الواقع الاجتماعي و الاقتصادي و المالي يبقى أصعب بكثير.هذه القضايا تمثل المسألة المركزية في هذا الكتاب الذي يضم بحوثا أُلقيت في مؤتمر جمعية مستقبل العالم (في شيكاغو سنة 2005)، و تميزت بأهمية كبيرة كونها تناولت التصورات المستقبلية التي تشغل حيزا واسعا من اهتمام البشر النازعين دوما إلى معرفة ما سيكون عليه مستقبل الأجيال المقبلة.

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